Sunday 3 April 2011

China: The Trouble With Export Led Model

Export-led model is flawed in many ways in China.  In created economic growth, but not wealth.

China has kept its currency value really low for ages.  The reason is very simple: that helps exports.  The Chinese Yuan is some 30% undervalued on an absolute purchasing power parity basis, and because of the ample supply of labour for the past 30 years or so, exporters can have cheap labour to produce their goods, and sell them at a very competitive price.

Because of the low currency, China could sell a lot.  Exporters gain huge profits consistently, making these people rich.  However, these companies are not raising wages for their workers at the same pace because there has been no shortage of labour in the past.  They are not paying out the profit as dividend either.

The myth of China's high saving rate is not well understood.  The reality is that companies saved a lot, while the saving rates for individuals may not be much higher than other Asian economies.  And also, naturally, the owners of these companies are rich, creating huge inequality.

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